JPM has a $16 yr end target. The JPM report is quiet favorable (recent weakness a buying opportunity, usual blah, blah).
In the JPM valuation model, the main driver is the 424 program for MF. JPM assigns a 70% probability of approval, with peak sales in 2015 at $500 mn/yr. By contrast, at the Cowen conference last month, INCY mgnt gave a range of $640-940 mn/yr for MF sales.
The other driver in the JPM model is 050, which they assign a 30% probability of approval, with $1 bn in peak sales in 2020.
In JPM model, I don't see any value assigned to PV or ET. It seems to me that the probability of approval is higher, and the probable timing of approval sooner, for 424 in PV than for 050 in RA. INCY/NVS could start at phase 3 trial for PV in Q3, which would put PV about one yr behind MF. The potential market for PV/ET is about 2X that of MF, according to the company's projection at the Cowen conference. PV and ET and MF have orphan drug status.
from Yahoo Message Board
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